Thursday, December 20, 2007
Buddy Guy's Stratocaster
Paul Krugman Speaks at Google
H/T Calculated Risk.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Paul Krugman Hits Another One Out of the Park
I mean, this guy has Obama's number to the point that it's almost embarrassing. It should be clear by now that John Edwards has it right, no one is going to give their power away at the bargaining table. The people will need to take it from them. Here is a link to the article in the NYT, it is currently featuring a video of John Edwards.
IMHO, after 8 years of incompetence and malfeasance including outing a CIA operative working on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the politicization of the Justice Department the next president will not have it easy. All the entrenched political operatives from the Bush administration need to be removed since they will stand in the way of any change. They will not go quietly.
Updated: for link to Edwards article.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Aspirin Does Not Help to Prevent Cancer
Monday, December 10, 2007
The Obama Dustup
Or I guess the English would say that it's a 'row'. Now, this 'oppo research' thing holds no real significance. I'm sure that every campaign looks into people who can have a harmful effect. Who cares if they did or didn't?
It seems that the real meat here, and what reveals more centers around the response that the Obama campaign directed towards Paul Krugman. They even have a little post on their website to check the facts for us about it. But if you click through to the original Krugman articles you will find that the fact checks don't give you all the facts. You can read the three Krugman articles here, here, and here.
If you read the original articles you will see that Krugman was never that taken with Obama's plan, but he thought it should be praised as a step in the right direction. The issue here is whether or not people will be required to sign up for the health insurance. Krugman argues the technocrat position that it would work better if they did, and Obama says that it would be more difficult to pass the legislation with that mandate. Yawn. Instead of responding to Krugman's claims about the best way to provide universal health insurance, the Obama campaign selectively quotes the good things that he says and then pretends that Krugman has suddenly changed his mind on Obama's plan. He hasn't, and saying so shows bad faith on their part.
Worse, the campaign remains strangely silent about the more damning issue of how Obama has run his campaign and attacked his Democratic opponents with the same right-wing straw men that will be used against his plan - if he ever gets the chance to put it into action. So for a short term advantage in the primary he sinks his own health care plan's future. Maybe Obama's plan really is a 'me too' plan and not his first priority. But if implementing policy is not the first priority, what is?
Shining Clouds
This is a pretty scary but cool new phenomenon. The money quote is
"It is clear that these clouds are changing, a sign that a part of our atmosphere is changing and we do not understand how, why or what it means," stated AIM principal investigator James Russell III of Hampton University, Hampton, Va. "These observations suggest a connection with global change in the lower atmosphere and could represent an early warning that our Earth environment is being changed."
Whoops, we broke the sky. Now who's going to fix it?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Home WiFi at Last
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Movie Review: Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten
I remember the day that Joe Strummer got fired from The Clash 'because he wasn't political enough'. I was stunned, because I thought that Joe was The Clash. Sure, Train in Vain was a love song, but most of the time he was aggressively political.
I saw this film at the Music Box as part of a Sound Opinions evening (and BTW those two guys aren't as tall as they sound on the radio). The first 30 minutes or so really, really sucked. They kept cutting from picture to picture, but didn't stay long enough on any one picture for you to get a good idea of the image. I hated it and I swear I was about to walk out of a movie for about the third time in my life, but I really wanted to see what happened when he joined the Clash so I decided to stay. Thankfully, the movie got a lot better. They had some really interesting interviews, though there was a campfire motif that they didn't explain until much later. The film really humanized Joe, and though it presented him as a bit of a prick, he really seemed to redeem himself as he got older. I suppose that's the part that I really found more disappointing - they could have presented a little more depth on how he grew as a person and recovered after getting fired from The Clash. While I liked this movie, it was like watching two different films.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Why I Can't Support Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary
Blogged with Flock
Why I Can't Support Hillary in the Democratic Primary
Blogged with Flock
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Kerik Indicted
Yes, I'm sure that if this man had become Director of Homeland Security justice would still have been done. What a fine judge of character all these powerful men turn out to be. Why, I remember this like it was yesterday.
PRESIDENT BUSH: I will answer the question. I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country. And I appreciated so very much the frank dialogue.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Santana - Musician's Corner - Red Guitar
Blogged with Flock
Monday, October 15, 2007
Environmental Actions?
Saturday, October 13, 2007
If the bus is headed in the wrong direction, it's the fault of the passengers
I, for one, welcome our new economic overlords
Thursday, October 11, 2007
gPhone Coming Soon?
Roger Ebert Blogging
Monday, October 8, 2007
Film Review: Sankara
Last night a friend and I saw the film Sankara at the Chicago International Film Festival. I thought the description of the film opened up a lot of possibilities for intrigue and moral conflict. Especially a monk tempted by the pleasures of the flesh while restoring a Buddhist morality tale in a mural about the self destruction inherent in the ephemera of sensuality. It started off as you'd expect, and then became really sensual. The sound really highlighted the tactile senses through the pouring a water (a symbol of life, love, and regeneration), the sound of fingers on a rough wall, or an extreme close up of sweat on skin. I thought they could have thrown some food for the smell and some music, too, but in the beginning I had a lot of hope that we would see something rich and strange. Unfortunately, the movie went no further in sensuality, conflict, or in any direction at all. There was no plot and no intrigue.
For conflict to exist in some kind of interpersonal intrigue there must be dialog. No conversation took place in this film and no relationships unfolded; people just spoke off camera or said their piece to lecture us all. The lack of movement kept on and on and on and I got really bored. I did not hate this movie, but I wish I had instead taken a chance on a different film. Give this one a miss and try another one.
Unnecessary Roughness
What do you do with people who use abuse as a strategy in life? I encountered it often working in the financial markets and saw it again the other day when I was doing my errands and I was surprised to get treated that way by someone who I had never met. I was trying to have a phone conversation about business and he edged up to an inch away from dropping the F-bomb before I had said a word to him. From my perspective it was totally uncalled for and inappropriate. It's hard to talk to people like that and bring them back from the brink. Usually people train staff to handle customers, but that requires some loss of control, and some find it impossible to give up any control at all.
Self righteous indignation and self aggrandizement poses an attractive nuisance to us all, me included. But while everyone is susceptible, I have found that people who are in fields where they make a lot of money particularly so. Some of those outwardly successful people did it to salve their ego by making a lot of money. Some people just can't get along with others, others like to boss people around.
As a teenager dreams of being a star after walking out of a room of people who just weren't impressed enough, people want people to value them according to their need even if that means grabbing them by the collar, shaking them up, and taking from them the respect they did not give. One way is stunning people by being famous, beautiful, or rich. That's not going to work all the time, but it will work enough that you won't care when it fails.
From my experience with very, very wealthy people I have found that even after some of them made a lot of money it didn't help. After you pay your bills having lots of money is just an idea in your head but that doesn't change how small you feel. For that you need people around you to change their behavior, and not everyone is impressed by a lot of money. You can either stun them with your flash (which unfortunately requires spending) or take control of something they need. "I own it. I am the boss. I am in charge."
I don't mean to insult people who go out and make a living on their own or start a business. Lots of very talented people work very hard to build their business from scratch. There are jerks everywhere, but a certain kind needs to run their own business.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Housing Numbers Not Looking Good
L'Ecole Number 41 Merlot, 2004
Dark red with an orange edge. Creamy scent of cherries and cream. Taste of cherries and ripe blackberries with good tannins and structure.This bottle is worth your $25 - $30.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Gibson J-45 Rosewood
The Gibson J-45 is considered the workhorse acoustic guitar. It's reputation is as a good, solid instrument for professionals. The Rosewood back and sides in this model adds a darker sound. Brazilian rosewood for the back and sides is considered the premier wood for guitar construction. It costs about $2400, so it's probably made from Indian rosewood. It doesn't really look all that spectacular, but it sure sounds nice.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
More gPhone Blogging
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Gibson Flying V
Friday, September 14, 2007
How Can Swarm Intelligence Turn Into Mass Stupidity?
Here is a cool article on Swarm Intelligence in National Geographic Magazine. In a nutshell, swarm intelligence is a process for making decisions that doesn't have a centralized control mechanism. The effect from these mass actions are called emergent; they arise out of the sum total of the interactions of the agents as a side effect of the individual agents independent actions. The emergent consequences are not the goal of those individual actions but rather the individuals collectively cause an unintended side effect.
It is extremely important for the system that these actions are taken without centralized control or even centralized information. Of course there must be communication, but it can't be centrally controlled. Ants, bees and other social insects use it to a large extent in their decision making process.
I covered swarm intelligence in markets here. A good example is the stock market. At any time, the collective intelligence of the world has processed all the given information and determined a price for the stock. The stock could be going up today so today's seller is wrong from your perspective, but the seller could be hedging or rebalancing their portfolio; each individual must make their own determination of the stock's value through the price. The problem that can occur is that the market may lose the swarm characteristics that ensure correct pricing and cause a bubble or other imbalance.
There is one very crucial part of the definition that I don't think gets enough notice. For the swarm magic to happen
the system has to reach a combined threshold of diversity, organization, and connectivity before emergent behavior appears.It the tension between connectivity, organization and independence of individual actors that causes the great benefits, but if that balance is thrown off, the market no longer prices correctly. Lots of things can disrupt the works. It's obvious that if the world is in a state of chaos there can be no market and that the ordering of society in general has to allow people to come together and buy and sell safely. Bad actors must be punished to protect the market from fraud. Connectivity can be face to face or over the internet. People have known this for ages but have long missed the hidden role diversity plays in supporting the whole structure. By diversity I mean independent individuals making decisions for their own reasons. During bubbles in particular this mechanism can break down.
Benefits of Swarm Intelligence
- great algorithm for decision making using many simple nodes. Simple nodes are easier to make and organizing those nodes is easier than creating more complicated nodes.
- on average extremely effective - makes reasonable decisions most of the time.
- If you are the individual whose risk pays off then you benefit greatly from the risk.
- Local Minima. If the coverage of the swarm is too small, it can be deceived by what looks like the correct answer locally, but is not the correct answer overall.
- Sucks for wrong individuals. If you are the individual who has to pay the price of failure then the system did not work for you. The system falls apart when nodes go along with the swarm instead of doing the hard work of determining their individual path.
There are many reasons why people might not pull their weight.
- Fear of taking responsibility - scared to take a risk and pay the price.
- Lazy. 'Nuff said.
- Deference to perceived authority
- Going along with the crowd
- The Bigger Idiot theory. The idea that someone else will come along and make the same mistake you did, except worse, and so save you from your own stupidity. So if, for example, you pay too much for a big house you and figure that can sell it to to the next sucker that walks down the street. Of course, only the biggest idiot actually believes in this theory.
Updated to add the Bigger Idiot theory.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Housing Crash Goes Mainstream
This whole crash has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion, and it's gotten to the point now where it's in a major publication like Newsweek. What will that do to consumer confidence as the magnitude of the problem seeps into public consciousness?
If you have some schadenfreude you can click through and see that in LA the hit might eventually be in 6 figures. Who's going to jump in front of that freight train? Most places don't have incredibly wealthy residents and geographical limitations that the "superstar cities like New York and San Francisco" have. Manhattan isn't getting any bigger. It remains to be seen how badly this will hurt the rest of the economy, but the real trick is where to invest while everything is hitting the fan. In the worst case scenario, we have to unwind not only the housing bubble, but the dot com bubble, too, and nothing will be a safe haven.
Gazing Into the Abyss
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Emergent Properties of Markets
I have been meaning to write a post on emergent properties of free markets, but haven't had the time. This is an article by Friedrich Hayek, The Use of Knowledge in Society: Library of Economics and Liberty, and it is an excellent explanation of what we all probably know already. In brief, the emergent properties of markets are the fancypants name of the 'invisible hand' of Adam Smith. The term 'emergent' and the related math formulas have since been discovered to describe the phenomenon more clearly.
One of the key paragraphs is H22:
The most significant fact about this system is the economy of knowledge with which it operates, or how little the individual participants need to know in order to be able to take the right action. In abbreviated form, by a kind of symbol, only the most essential information is passed on and passed on only to those concerned. It is more than a metaphor to describe the price system as a kind of machinery for registering change, or a system of telecommunications which enables individual producers to watch merely the movement of a few pointers, as an engineer might watch the hands of a few dials, in order to adjust their activities to changes of which they may never know more than is reflected in the price movement.
The emergent property of a market is price, and through price we individually determine usefulness. The trick is that we are the only ones who know how useful things are to us. In paragraph H30:
The problem is thus in no way solved if we can show that all the facts, if they were known to a single mind (as we hypothetically assume them to be given to the observing economist), would uniquely determine the solution; instead we must show how a solution is produced by the interactions of people each of whom possesses only partial knowledge. To assume all the knowledge to be given to a single mind in the same manner in which we assume it to be given to us as the explaining economists is to assume the problem away and to disregard everything that is important and significant in the real world.
That determination is made through a 'feeling' or some other simplified heuristic device. What we almost never do is think through the math of how much value this purchase will add versus it's cost. It's remarkable that anyone ever thought doing these calculations through a central intelligence would be possible, or even desirable.
The more rigorous definitions of how the market mechanism actually works delineates more clearly when markets fail.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Grove Street Cabernet 2001
Grove Street, Alexander Valley, Cabernet Sauvignon, 2001
$17 Deep dark purple. Taste of plums and black currant with a nice oakiness. Tannins are smooth and not overpowering. 90
It's already better than it was when I first got it a few months ago. It night not stand up for the next 20 years, but who wants to cellar a wine for that long, anyway? I bought a case because I think that as the tannins smooth out over time the fruit will just get better. If you can find some, you might want to pick some up.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Allman Brothers!
National Guitar Style O
What most people think about is the Style O that Mark Knopfler had on the album cover of "Brothers in Arms". Mark says "it's like an old movie, cheesy but cool". As far as playing it is concerned he says "since you can't bend the strings you have to think of other things to do, so the beauty actually comes from the guitars limitations". Well, that and the engraving of Hawaii sand blasted onto it.
These instruments were resonator guitars with a metal alloy amplifier inside that looks like a tin pie dish. They and were not cheap when they were new. $65 was a lot of money in 1930, equivalent to about $775! Production standards were quite loose in the factory, so quality varied extremely widely between individuals. Here especially you have to play it before buying it to know what it's worth. They were originally used in the Hawaian music craze (and I'm not just trying to justify the engraving) but they were loud enough for Jazz guys to fight off those crazy horn players. Standard acoustic guitars were not audible in a big band concert and of course electric guitars hadn't been invented yet, so these gave them a fighting chance. Sounds great with acoustic blues, though. They were played by some successful Blues guys like Son House and Tampa Red, but were just too expensive to be a realistic alternative for most musicians living in the Delta.
They're back in Production here at National. I don't know anything about how the new guitars sound. Here are more details on the old ones.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Pushing on the String
After the dot com bubble burst interest rates remained at all time lows. This helped push up the price of housing because what people care about is the size of their payment, not the price they're paying for the house. With long term rates all the way down at 5.0% you can afford a lot more house than you can at 8.1%. Everyone started making money hand over fist - brokers, owners, bankers, furniture salesmen - everyone. Some people started to speculate and flip and others built more houses to sell to people. These people borrowed money for the house and all the stuff in it.
2/3 of the economy is consumer spending. But if consumer debt is at an all time high (as the article states "Household spending grew considerably faster than incomes from the early 1990s to 2006" ) and people's housing ATM has run dry, how are we going to continue spending? If we all already had to borrow to spend previously, where will the money come from now? Sooner or later the party is over and the credit card bills have to get paid, and we all know that Monday morning is not fun. If we're lucky we will escape recession, but the Fed might be powerless to stop it.
I believe the Keynesian solution to a lack of sufficient spending by consumers and businesses is to run deficits. But we've already got huge deficits and we're borrowing the money from foreign central banks. Will we run deficits even bigger?
iPhone vs. gPhone
So now the rumors have started about the gPhone. I love GMail because tagging emails is a great idea because you can get them out of your way and then save them forever. All Google's applications like Maps are already networked. Frankly they can probably give the iPhone a real run for their money if they concentrate on phone functionality. If the gPhone can use a faster network than AT&T is using it would be that much better. Could they be using VOIP? gPhone with Skype would be awesome.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Gibson ES-335
Here is another great Gibson guitar. This is a classic that has been in continuous production since 1958, when it was introduced. Everyone has played it, B.B. King, Eric Clapton, Warren Haynes, Clarence 'Gatemouth' Brown. Hendrix had one, and so did Duane Allman.
But it's not just jazz and blues guys; the great thing about this guitar is the versatility. People have used it for all kinds of styles because they can make it sound like what they want. the secret of this guitar is the fact that while it has tone like a hollow body, the sustain lasts like a solid body because there is a chunk of wood underneath the strings and that keeps the energy from dissipating into the body. It's distinguished by its smooth sound no matter what style you're playing. You can listen to samples on the Gibson web site. You can go from a jazzy sound to something a little rougher.
What's more surprising is that they can be had for less than $2,000.
Exercise Helps More Than You Think
It's interesting to read the whole article.This theory emerged from those mouse studies at the Salk Institute. After conducting maze tests, the neuroscientist Fred H. Gage and his colleagues examined brain samples from the mice. Conventional wisdom had long held that animal (and human) brains weren’t malleable: after a brief window early in life, the brain could no longer grow or renew itself. The supply of neurons — the brain cells that enable us to think — was believed to be fixed almost from birth. As the cells died through aging, mental function declined. The damage couldn’t be staved off or repaired.
All of the mice showed this vivid proof of what’s known as “neurogenesis,” or the creation of new neurons. But the brains of the athletic mice in particular showed many more. These mice, the ones that scampered on running wheels, were producing two to three times as many new neurons as the mice that didn’t exercise.
Gage’s discovery hit the world of neurological research like a thunderclap. Since then, scientists have been finding more evidence that the human brain is not only capable of renewing itself but that exercise speeds the process.
“We’ve always known that our brains control our behavior,” Gage says, “but not that our behavior could control and change the structure of our brains.”
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Blog Post of the Year So Far...
Blogged with Flock
Mind Hacks Points to More Ways to Program Your Wetware
Excellent BBC Brain Story series available online:
I've just noticed that probably one of the best TV series on psychology and neuroscience ever produced, the BBC's Brain Story, is available on public bittorrent servers for download.
It is a six part series covering virtually every area of contemporary neuropsychology, including the major researchers, discoveries, techniques and even many of the patients who have been the subjects of classic case studies that have helped us understand the curious effects of brain injury.
You can click on the blog's links if you have Bit Torrent installed.
Mavis Staples Live in Chicago Sunday, Aug. 12
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Blonde Redhead
Saturday, August 4, 2007
Gibson Custom Shop 57 Les Paul Goldtop Reissue
Custom Shop quality in a classic reissue!
The '57 Les Paul Goldtop Reissue Electric Guitar is the quintessential Les Paul at its finest. It's Custom Shop crafted to be accurate to '57 specifications in every detail including the CTS pots and bumblebee capacitors. It was the first Paul to feature humbucking pickups, and this one comes equipped with BurstBuckers. Carved maple top, mahogany back, and one-piece mahogany neck with the '57 profile and the original extended tenon joint. It features binding on body and neck, nickel hardware, an original ABR-1 tune-o-matic bridge, and the trademark antique gold finish. Includes Gibson Custom Shop hardshell case.
Gibson Custom Shop 57 Les Paul Goldtop Reissue Electric Guitar Features:
- Accurate to '57 specifications in every detail
- CTS pots and bumblebee capacitors
- BurstBucker humbuckers
- Carved maple top
- Mahogany back
- One-piece mahogany neck with the '57 profile and the original extended tenon joint
- Binding on body and neck
- Nickel hardware
- Original ABR-1 tune-o-matic bridge
- Trademark antique gold finish
- Includes Gibson Custom Shop hardshell case
Gibson Custom Shop 57 Les Paul Goldtop Reissue Electric Guitar Includes:
- Gibson hardshell case